KS Muralidharan
Three friends, a cricketer, techie and a stock broker were discussing Lok Sabha elections 2024 and the changes it could bring about.
Cricketer ©: On present form, Congress in particular is sure to have a bad innings. They are going to be bowled out lock, stock and barrel.
Techie (T): It’s all because the Gandhis continue to control the party’s operating system. All the three versions, Sonia 1.0, Rahul 2.0 and Priyanka 3.0 have failed.
Stock broker (S): The voters are going long on the Modi stock, but to add more to its value, 2024 will see more first-time voters investing their future in Modi, like new money pouring in on a rising stock.
C: Another problem for the opposition is that like Congress, even the INDI Alliance partners are unable to attack the BJP on the front foot. They are all on the defensive, because of various corruption charges against their main leaders like Arvind Kejriwal, MK Stalin, Laloo Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, etc.
T: The Congress campaign managers relied on big data in Karnataka and figured out how to wean away a sizable part of the Lingayat vote and the entire Muslim vote from the JD(S). They should go back to their data analytics and try to do something similar to hack into the Hindu vote.
S: Easier said than done. The 2023 annual report of the Congress till the 5 assembly elections shows accumulated losses are rising, except for one subsidiary in the south. Unless they disinvest in Rahul Gandhi and come up with a new public offering, 2024 will see the Congress turn into a penny stock.
C: Sadly for the Congress, their number one all rounder, Rahul Gandhi is going through a bad patch for the past 10 years! And yet, the selection committee in the high command is not replacing him! Though, to Rahul’s credit, he’s giving his 101% by hurling bouncers, beamers and whatnot at Modi, but they are always ending up as a no-ball, or wide.
T: If I were Sonia, I would dispassionately call for a disaster recovery, after the rout of the Congress in the Hindi heart-land. She should invest in someone who is agile and adaptive. For a start, all defeated leaders like Kamalnath, Digvijay Singh, Ashok Gehlot, should be immediately transferred to the recycle bin.
S: The Congress should reinvent itself in the form of an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the name of Sachin Pilot or maybe Shashi Tharoor. While Pilot has the experience of being a dark horse for the past one decade and so may give a decent breakout, Tharoor can at least trade his masterly vocabulary for votes by confusing and confounding the voters!
C: Let’s talk of India after 2024. Since Modi is in his last innings, he will treat his entire 5-year term as slog overs and go for the kill. Given the blistering form he is in, many people are saying that he will end the careers of many opposition leaders like Kejriwal, Laloo Yadav and the Gandhis who are likely to go to jail.
T: It is also time to ask after Modi who? The BJP’s Central Processing Unit (CPU)’s query may throw up some interesting search results. As per SEO specialists, the popular searches with the highest value, are Yogi Adityanath, Amit Shah and Hemanta Biswa Sarma.
S: The market is bullish on all the three, but I think Yogi Adityanath may make the first bid. The question is whether the party high command will CALL him or Yogi himself will PUT his hat in the ring.
C: Let’s pray that whoever follows on after Modi, will not tamper with the secular pitch. The BJP is traditionally accused of altering the pitch to suit its game. They should not overplay it to an extent where everyone start doing it in their own turf!
T: The danger is influencers in the social media may try and amplify this perception even though the people themselves may not be too bothered. It’s like you expect the algorithm to pick, but it doesn’t.
S: Modi will surely maintain the momentum on governance, but what of the Congress? Its portfolio has already shrunk after exiting in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. And after 2024, there will be a run on its government in Karnataka and Telangana, which will definitely see hostile takeovers.
C: All this is fine, but BJP should now prepare for the pitch awaiting them after Modi’s exit. The next LS polls in 2029 will see a new captain, but what is the guarantee that the incoming captain will be able to steer his team like Modi? The party has a poor record in southern states except Karnataka, and the north may probably pose a sticky wicket where the electoral returns may not be like earlier.
T: Post-2024, the entire enterprise architecture will be set for a change not only in the BJP but also in most of the opposition parties. For example, in Tamilnadu, Stalin is already in the 70s and how will his party, the DMK reboot in time for the assembly polls in 2026? The situation is worse for the Congress. If the Gandhis go to jail, the Congress may be dumped in the recycle bin of Indian politics, and the party will then need a new application process interface (API) that can further its secular software.
S: The only thing we can conclude with certainty is that the BJP will be bereft of its blue chip Modi stock, and the Gandhis will lose their equity in Congress, while the regional parties will lose lot of market value due to the devaluation of their premium assets nearing their expiry date.